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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.