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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."